Summary
Compares fossil background rates with current losses, suggesting a sixth mass extinction.
In depth
Fossil background rate is about 0.1 to 1 extinction per million species-years; current rates are estimated at 100 to 1000 times that. Methods use IUCN assessments, species-area relationships and models. Uncertainty arises from undescribed species.
Estimates are uncertain because many species are undescribed. The 'sixth mass extinction' framing compares rates with the big five.
Example: amphibians are among the most threatened vertebrates.
The background extinction rate from the fossil record is about 0.1 to 1 extinctions per million species-years, so about 1 to 10 species per year if there are 10 million species. Current rates, from documented losses and modelling, are estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher, and projected to rise.
Methods include counting recorded extinctions (a minimum, since many species vanish unrecorded), species-area relationships applied to habitat loss, and extrapolating Red List trends. Fossil comparison suggests that 75 percent of species may be lost within a few centuries if all currently threatened species were lost, which is the criterion for a mass extinction, the sixth in Earth's history and the first caused by one species.
Example: since 1500 at least 900 species have gone extinct.
Remember: extinctions are hard to confirm.
Frequently asked questions
What is Extinction Rate Estimation?
Compares fossil background rates with current losses, suggesting a sixth mass extinction.
Which area of biology covers Extinction Rate Estimation, and how advanced is it?
Extinction Rate Estimation is one of the 52 topics in Taxonomy & Biodiversity. It is rated Advanced, so it suits learners who want specialist depth. Related topics in this area include Minimum Viable Population, IUCN Red List Criteria, Population Viability Analysis.
Can you give an example of Extinction Rate Estimation?
Since 1500, over 800 species are documented as extinct.
What should I learn before Extinction Rate Estimation?
Work through the Beginner topics in Taxonomy & Biodiversity first, such as Taxonomy, Binomial Nomenclature, Taxonomic Hierarchy, then return to Extinction Rate Estimation. Advanced topics assume the Intermediate vocabulary.
What topics are related to Extinction Rate Estimation?
The closest topics to Extinction Rate Estimation are Minimum Viable Population, IUCN Red List Criteria, Population Viability Analysis, Living Fossils. Comparing them side by side is a good way to see how the ideas connect.
How can I check that I understand Extinction Rate Estimation?
Read the summary and the in-depth section, then use the quick check on the interactive lesson for Extinction Rate Estimation. To practise the whole of Taxonomy & Biodiversity, use the Taxonomy & Biodiversity quiz.
How is Extinction Rate Estimation different from Minimum Viable Population?
Extinction Rate Estimation: Compares fossil background rates with current losses, suggesting a sixth mass extinction. Minimum Viable Population: The smallest population size with a high chance of long-term persistence. Read both side by side and note what each one explains.
How should I study Extinction Rate Estimation step by step?
First, read the summary and write the definition in your own words. Second, read the in-depth section and note any example. Third, compare it with Minimum Viable Population and explain the difference aloud. Finally, take the Taxonomy & Biodiversity quiz and come back to this page for any question you miss.